API 2 needs to strengthen relative to API 4 for Colombian coal to stop going to Asia. But opinions differ as to whether European power demand will recover this year to provide a boost to coal consumption, creating the necessary demand and change in prices. Colombian coal is significantly better value than either Newcastle or Richards Bay, which at current prices equate to around $116/mt and $122/mt on a CFR East Asia basis, respectively. Freight from Puerto Bolivar to East Asia is in the mid- to high-$30/mt range. Colombian coal on an FOB basis is at discount of around $20/mt to the API 4 index, which equates to $76/mt. Europe is still a big destination for Colombian coal, despite the volumes heading to Asia.
