Nearly 23,000 megawatts (MW) of coal-fired generating capacity was retired in the United States from 2009 to March 2014, and that number is already on track to more than double between the remainder of 2014 and 2022, according to an updated SNL Energy analysis of coal retirements. After hitting a peak of more than 9,000 MW in 2012, retirements of U.S. coal units slowed a bit in 2013, with SNL Energy data showing that about 6,300 MW was shuttered in 2013. The PJM Interconnection again took the brunt of the retirements, seeing roughly 2,707 MW of coal capacity retire in 2013. Of the 22,778 MW of coal capacity that retired from 2009 to 2013, nearly 10,200 MW was located in PJM.
Looking forward, U.S. power producers plan to shutter 27,143 MW of coal capacity between 2014 and 2022. The majority of those planned retirements (13,550 MW) will occur in 2015 when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) take effect. By contrast, generators have announced only 2,854 MW of coal retirements in 2014, as they continue to sort out their MATS compliance plans.
Planned coal unit retirements, as defined by SNL Energy for this analysis, include those with a firm retirement year that was either publicly disclosed by the company or confirmed by SNL. Units listed as retired are permanently retired and do not include coal units designated by the operating company as mothballed or deactivated.
While generators have already committed to closing a large number of coal units in the years leading up to and following MATS, most experts agree there is still a significant amount of unit retirements yet to be announced. Analysts with Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC, for example, recently published new research projecting that roughly 36,600 MW of coal capacity could retire in 2014 and 2015 alone. The additional retirements will likely include those units burning bituminous coal that have yet to be equipped with SO2 scrubbing equipment and would not have time to be retrofitted before the MATS deadline. Bernstein estimates that such plants account for an additional 11,000 MW of coal-fired capacity.
